“China has all the opportunity to increase its share on the Iranian market. China is already Iran's largest trading partner with a turnover of almost $60 billion,” TeleTrade chief analyst Petr Pushkarev said to RT. China can boost its share in South Pars, Iran’s giant gas field, and also grab more contracts in construction of railways, trains, and other infrastructure projects.
The analyst notes that Europe is the biggest loser from US sanctions on Iran, maybe more than Iran itself. “French Total, Italian Eni and other companies want to get an exemption from the US to ensure they are not penalized for doing business in Iran - but that's unlikely to happen when you see Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs. Perhaps, the US will offers some relief, but only in exchange for even more unprofitable for Europe concessions in other trade agreements with the US,” he added.
Pushkarev notes that more and more countries will use intermediary Asian firms to do business with Iran, and such firms are using the yuan and the euro, not the US dollar. “Trump pushes the global business community to rally around other financial and political centers, eroding the strength of the dollar system of settlements in the long term,” he said.
“If Europe and the US fail to find a compromise on their trade war, then Europe will not only impose retaliatory sanctions against the US, but also, with a high probability, ignore the American boycott of the Iranian nuclear deal. Investments will be made in alternative currencies,” Vladimir Rojankovski, investment analyst at Global FX told RT.
The situation around Iran can become a turning point in EU-US relations, according to Mikhail Mashchenko, an analyst at social network for investors eToro. “Firstly, the statements of European officials show fatigue and reluctance to continue acting in favor of US interests to the detriment of their own economy. Secondly, after the nuclear deal, Europeans have actively invested in Iran. Total alone planned to invest $8.4 billion, but at the moment has invested only $40 million,” he said.
