“Risks we thought might materialize this summer through Iran sanctions are emerging somewhat more quickly due to events in Syria,” said JPMorgan Chase strategists. New Syrian hostilities are likely to have a muted effect on oil, however, since the nation’s production has already fallen so deeply due to the seven-year long war.
A possible decision in May on Iran sanctions may be “the start of a process that maintains low-intensity stress on oil markets that can deliver higher prices and above-average volatility," the strategists wrote, comparing it to the Arab Spring of 2011 rather than the major oil shocks of 1973, 1979 and 1990. Since the U.S. doesn’t buy Iranian crude, it would take sanctions from the EU and even some Asian customers to depress markets materially.
JPMorgan’s strategists have positioned for higher oil prices that could last three to six months, before US. shale production can respond, rather than for an acute supply cut that delivers subtrend global growth.
“Equity and credit markets probably won’t welcome a geopolitical/supply-driven rise to $80 that could persist for several months," they wrote, but it won’t be "an event that drives a bear market in either.” Brent last cost $80 a barrel in November 2014.
